Road to Derby Makes Stop at Tampa, Santa Anita

The Road to the Kentucky Derby goes through Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita on Saturday with a pair of points races, with the winner of each race virtually assured a starting spot in the gate on the first Saturday of May for the Run for the Roses.

The $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) drew a field of 10 led by the Todd Pletcher trained Surfing U S A, who is the 3-1 morning line favorite and currently listed at a generous 75-1 in Derby future wagering at Bovada.

Pletcher will also saddle Vinceremos, who won the Sam F. Davis (G3) over the Tampa Bay Downs main track in his last outing. In five of the last eight years, the Tampa Bay Derby winner has used the Sam F. Davis as a prep. Vinceremos is listed at 85-1 in future wagering for the Derby.

Nine will go to the gate in the $300,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita, also with 50-20-10-5 Derby points up for grabs for the top four finishers. The race lost morning line favorite Bayern, who will scratch with a foot bruise.

Midnight Hawk is coming off a third place finish in the Robert B. Lewis (G2) and is one of the major contenders. The Bob Baffert trainee is listed at 40-1 in Derby future wagering at Bovada.

Kristo may end up going off as the betting favorite in the San Felipe. The colt was a good second in the Sham (G3) in his last outing and is 50-1 for the Derby.

Here are my top two picks for each of the Derby points races for Saturday:

The Tampa Bay Derby G2 (5:25 ET)

Surfing U S A is one of two in here sent out by the Todd Pletcher barn that won this race last year with Verrazano. Our top pick faced winners for the first time last out, setting the early fractions and was unable to hold off the winner late in a runner up finish. That winner was Top Billing, who came back to finish third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on Feb. 22 and might have won that over a fair racing surface as he came from off the pace battling an inside speed bias that day. The colt is going to be part of what could be a lively pace his debut still looks as if he has some upside. The colt is out of the graded stakes winner Cape Hope ($212,038).

Conquest Titan was outrun in the early going and came with a good late run while wide to finish in the runner up spot last out in the Holy Bull (G2) behind Cairo Prince, who is one of the early Derby favorites, currently listed at 8-1 at Bovada. The third place finisher in the Holy Bull was Intense Holiday, who came back to win the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds in his next outing on Feb. 22. The $475,000 Ocala purchase is by Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Birdstone out of an unraced Mineshaft mare, her first foal to race. The colt is going to get a good pace set up here.

The San Felipe G2 (2:00 PT)

Kristo dueled for the early lead and could not match strides late with Midnight Hawk in a runner up finish in the Sham (G3), which was his first go against winners and first start off a 2 1/2 month break. Midnight Hawk came back to run third in the Robert B. Lewis (G2) in his next start as the beaten favorite. The $500,000 Keeneland purchase owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers n looks capable of moving forward here for the John Sadler barn that won this race in 2010 with Sidney's Candy. The colt has been working sharply over the surface and broke his maiden here two back in a good-looking effort.

California Chrome is coming off a sharp win the state bred California Cup Derby last out, drawing away to win by 5 1/2 lengths. The runner up in the race was Tammarando, who came back to win the  El Camino Real (G3) in his next outing at Golden Gate Fields on Feb. 15. His win last out was just his second trip on conventional dirt and he now has stakes wins on Cushion Track, polytrack and good old dirt. He was not tested in his last two starts and faces a tough group her in open company but looks up to the task.

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